The Labour and Welfare Bureau's Report on 2023 Manpower Projection, released on 14 November 2024, projected that Hong Kong's overall manpower shortfall would widen from about 50,000 workers in 2023 to around 180,000 by 2028. The forecast points to a structural planning issue for employers: demand was expected to grow much faster than the local workforce.
In the report's 2023 baseline, manpower supply was about 3.50 million against demand of 3.55 million. By 2028, supply was projected at about 3.56 million and demand at 3.75 million. The projection assumed annual economic growth of around 3.2% and already took existing talent-admission and labour-importation measures into account.
Where the shortage was projected to be most severe
The report covered seventeen selected industries representing more than 2.8 million workers, around eighty per cent of Hong Kong's labour force and over seventy per cent of GDP. It projected shortages across every selected industry, with ten industries each short by more than 10,000 people.
- Skilled technical workers: a projected shortfall of 60,000 to 65,000, driven by an ageing workforce and limited numbers of new entrants.
- Managers and professionals: continued demand for innovation and technology specialists, data analysts, actuaries, engineers and healthcare professionals.
- Service roles: chefs, sales staff, waiters, security officers and cabin crew remained among the occupations with high demand.
- Industry concentration: construction, city operations, innovation and technology, aviation, accommodation and food, health services and several other sectors were expected to face material gaps.
Skilled technical workers alone accounted for more than one third of the projected 2028 shortage. That matters because these roles usually require practical training and experience that cannot be built immediately after a vacancy appears.
What employers should do differently
A structural shortage makes replacement-only hiring less reliable. Employers should identify roles where a vacancy would interrupt operations, delay projects or place scarce knowledge at risk, then decide how much of that exposure can be addressed through retention, succession, training or a broader candidate market.
For critical roles, HR and business leaders should agree the likely hiring lead time, realistic salary position, internal successors and skills that can be developed after appointment. A JD built around every possible requirement can narrow the candidate pool unnecessarily; separating genuine must-haves from trainable skills often creates more workable options.
- Map business-critical positions against the report's shortage categories.
- Review retention risk before experienced employees enter the market.
- Build graduate, apprenticeship and mid-career development pathways.
- Use workforce data to identify skills that are concentrated in one person or team.
- Consider suitable talent-admission or imported-labour routes where local hiring cannot meet a genuine need.
What the forecast means for candidates
A shortage does not remove the need for clear evidence. Candidates in technical and specialist fields should explain the level of responsibility they held, the systems or projects they supported and the result of their work. Employers may be flexible on an exact industry background, but they still need confidence that skills are transferable.
For people considering a move, the forecast also underlines the value of continuing development. Practical digital skills, recognised technical qualifications, supervisory capability and the ability to work across functions can improve mobility as job content changes.
Our view
The projection showed why workforce planning should begin before a vacancy becomes urgent. Salary matters, but employers also compete through role clarity, manager quality, training, flexibility and credible career paths. These factors help attract people and reduce the need to keep replacing them.
iTalent can help employers define priority roles, assess the available candidate market and build a practical hiring plan. Candidates can also speak with us about how their experience fits current demand. Contact the iTalent team for a confidential discussion, or browse our latest opportunities.
